Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
02/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Wild will try to stop their longest current losing streak against any team in the league when they host the Dallas Stars this evening at Xcel Energy Center for the final time this season.
Minnesota has dropped its last six games (0-3-3) against the Stars, including all three matchups this year. Two of those setbacks have come in a shootout. The Wild's last win over the Stars was at home on December 19, 2005.
On Sunday, David Backes' pair of scores lifted the Blues to a 5-3 win over the Wild at Scottrade Center. Marian Gaborik scored and picked up one assist for Minnesota, which has lost two of three. Adam Hall and Pavol Demitra also tallied.
Gaborik and Demitra have been red-hot as of late. Demitra is currently riding a nine-game point streak (seven goals, eight assists), which is one off his career-best 10-game point burst, set in 2001.
Gaborik, meanwhile, has scored a goal in four straight contests and has totaled five tallies and four assists over his last four games.
Niklas Backstrom picked up the loss on Sunday, stopping 21 shots before leaving the game after two periods. Josh Harding was a perfect four-of-four in 18 minutes of third-period relief.
The Wild are a stellar 20-5-4 at home this year, but will hit the road on Thursday to battle Colorado. The club is three points behind Vancouver for the lead in the Northwest Division.
Dallas was also last in action on Sunday, but unlike the Wild, came out winners. Mike Ribeiro and Jere Lehtinen both scored a pair of goals to help the Stars defeat the San Jose Sharks, 5-2.
Stu Barnes scored for the Stars, who have won six of their last eight games and trail Anaheim by seven points for the top spot in the Pacific Division. Marty Turco blocked 17 shots in the win.
The Stars were without center Eric Lindros, who missed his third straight game on Sunday because of a lower body injury. He is questionable for tonight's contest.
Dallas is still without center Steve Ott (ankle surgery), left wing Brenden Morrow (right wrist surgery) and right wing Matthew Barnaby (concussion).
The Stars are 16-12-1 as the visitor this season and return home for a big game against the Ducks on Friday.
<< Pistons visit Central Division-rival Milwaukee
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Central Division-leading Detroit Pistons try to
get back on the winning track tonight when they hit the road to visit the
Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center.
Detroit had its seven-game winning streak halted with las
<< Argonauts ink QB McMahon
Toronto, Ontario (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Argonauts signed former NFL
quarterback Mike McMahon on Tuesday.
In 29 career NFL games, spread over five seasons with Detroit and
Philadelphia, McMahon completed 229 of 515
<< Big East action pits Mountaineers at Friars
Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In need of a quality win, the Providence
Friars host the 22nd-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers in a key Big East
showdown from the Dunkin' Donuts Center tonight.
The Friars have had a solid campai
<< Badgers take top-ranking into East Lansing
East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The now top-ranked Wisconsin Badgers
have made the trip to East Lansing for tonight's Big Ten Conference
clash with the Michigan State Spartans.
Five consecutive wins have enabled W
Habs entertain Caps in encounter between struggling clubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens will try to post back-to-back wins
for the first time in a month as they welcome the Washington Capitals for
tonight's showdown at the Bell Centre.
The Canadiens ended a six-game losing stre
Rangers, Devils open home-and-home series in New Jersey >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils begin an
important home-and-home series this evening, with the first of the consecutive
meetings to take place at Continental Airlines Arena.
These two games carry importance for
Lightning try to rebound against Panthers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first-place Tampa Bay Lightning will attempt to avenge
a weekend loss to the Florida Panthers when the Southeast Division rivals
complete a home-and-home series tonight at St. Pete Times Forum.
Florida got the upper ha
Line of Scrimmage: Norv Turner - Bad Things Happen in Threes >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They're rejoicing in Denver, Kansas City,
and Oakland right about now.
Norv Turner is an NFL head coach for the third time, having taken over for
Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego, and the rest of the AFC
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
MySportsbook features easy-to-use online betting software that’s the most reliable in the industry. If you’re looking to bet underdogs, then this Sportsbook is the place - we have the best betting lines in the business. MySportsbook is your one-stop shop for all your betting needs - sports betting, poker, casino, and horse betting . MySportsbook offers every bet type with lightning fast settlement of wagers. Take advantage of free statistical analysis - including against-the-spread and straight-up trends - in MySportsbook’s game previews section. With MySportsbook there are unlimited free deposits and payouts - and no transaction fees!
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football sportsbook needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting