State bragging rights on line, as Spartans visit Wolverines

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/10/2009 - Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - State and Big Ten rivals will collide in Ann Arbor tonight as the Michigan Wolverines attempt to upset the ninth-ranked Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan State owns a stellar 19-4 record this season, including an impressive 9-2 mark in Big Ten play. The club is fresh off a 75-47 thrashing of Indiana on Saturday, and four of the last five outings have resulted in victory. There are plenty of reasons for optimism heading into this evening's tilt for Michigan State, including the fact that it has won all six of its true road games this season.

As for Michigan, its 15-9 overall record is clearly more impressive than the 5-6 league mark that the team has compiled thus far. The Wolverines actually got off to a promising start in conference, but three of the last four outings and six of eight have ended in defeat. On Saturday, they took a break from Big Ten action to take on top-ranked UConn, and the result was a 69-61 loss on the road. Clearly, Michigan was competitive in the setback, so that loss may actually spark some confidence.

Tonight's game marks the only scheduled meeting of the season between these rivals, and the Wolverines hold a 91-71 series lead over the Spartans.

Michigan State has been forced to play without standout Raymar Morgan because of pneumonia, and it is unclear when he will be back in the lineup. Morgan is averaging 12.3 ppg to place second on the squad, and he is grabbing 6.0 rpg as well. Kalin Lucas is the leader for the Spartans with 14.8 ppg, and he has dished out 112 assists against only 40 turnovers. As for Goran Suton, who is the club's third and final double-digit scorer, he provides 10.1 ppg and 8.0 rpg. Michigan State is posting 75.5 ppg through 23 outings while limiting foes to 64.4 ppg. The Spartans were outstanding at the defensive end against Indiana on Saturday, as they held the young and inexperienced Hoosiers to 31 percent overall shooting while forcing 21 turnovers. Chris Allen scored 16 points off the bench for Michigan State, while Draymond Green added 15 points and 12 boards. Suton (12 points) and Lucas (10 points) added balance.

Michigan is only scoring 68.2 ppg this season on 42.1 percent shooting from the field. Fortunately, the club has been able to limit its opponents to 63.4 ppg, and strong defense is a major reason the club has been able to win 15 games. Manny Harris is the leading scorer for Michigan this season, as he is racking up 17.5 ppg to go along with other team highs of 106 assists and 31 steals. The only other double-digit scorer on the roster is DeShawn Sims, as he is netting 14.8 ppg while grabbing 7.5 rpg. Considering the fact that Michigan shot just 38.6 percent from the field against UConn on Saturday and was outscored by 11 points from the foul line, it is hard to believe that the Wolverines were even able to stay close. They were outrebounded by a 47-24 margin but forced 17 turnovers while committing just 10 of their own. Stu Douglass had 20 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three-point range to pace Michigan in defeat.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.