Cuba edges U.S. in thrilling quarterfinal

Baseball Betting Lines

07/31/2010 - Thunder Bay, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a dramatic quarterfinal matchup, one can only imagine what else is in store for the final weekend of the World Junior Baseball Championship.

Omar Luis threw nine solid innings in a gutsy 144-pitch effort to shutdown a dangerous United States lineup as Cuba held on for the 3-2 victory in a thrilling game featuring two of baseball's biggest powerhouse nations.

"This was fun to watch, the fans brought some excitement here," said U.S. hitting coach Brian McRae. "Anytime Cuba and United States play it's going to be a good ballgame and today was no different."

"I was glad to be a part of it."

Luis (2-0) battled through a shaky ninth to hold on for the victory, earning Cuba a date in the semifinals versus Australia.

The Cuban lefty, who threw 137 pitches against Canada earlier in the tournament, turned in another captivating performance in front of a sell-out crowd at Port Arthur Stadium.

"He's got a rubber arm and he just battles," said U.S. outfielder Michael Lorenzen. "Good for him, I'm proud of him."

Lazaro Hernandez' ninth-inning triple off lefthanded reliever Philip Pfeifer (0-1) to score pinch runner Lazaro Ramirez gave the Cubans a 3-2 lead that proved to be the difference.

"We worked hard for this game; this game was very important," said Luis. "We are happy and we are ready to go straight ahead to the championship."

Lorenzen's two-out double in the bottom of the ninth gave the U.S. new life and kept fans riveted on the edge of their seat.

After hitting second baseman Tony Wolters in the back of the head to put the winning run on first, Luis gave up a single to shortstop Francisco Lindor to load the bases and set the stage for a dramatic ending.

But in a game with several twists and turns, the ending proved anti-climatic.

Marcus Littlewood grounded into a game-ending fielder's choice to hand the Cubans the win and send the Americans, who went 5-0 during group play, home earlier than anticipated.

"It's disappointing because you don't want to spend five weeks getting ready for this and all the work you put into it and not reach your goal," said McRae. "Our goal was to get to the gold medal game and hopefully win a gold medal.

"That didn't happen and it's frustrating but this was an awesome ballgame."

In control for long stretches of the game, Luis used a deceptive delivery and a breaking ball with late movement to keep a strong U.S. attack off balance. At one point retiring 11 straight U.S. batters, Luis gave the Cubans the marquee performance they needed to knock off a star-studded American roster.

And yet despite allowing 10 hits while walking a pair with five strikeouts, Luis' warrior-type performance will be remembered for years to come.

"We had them on the ropes and we couldn't take advantage," said McRae. "He was able to wiggle himself out of some jams and when we started to mount a little bit, he seemed like he could make a pitch and do something to keep us from inflicting some damage on him. He did a good job."

As did his counterpart, U.S. starter A.J. Vanegas.

The 6'3" righthander was lights out against a menacing Cuban lineup, locating a live fastball with a dipping curveball on his way to 13 strikeouts while allowing just five hits and two runs over eight innings.

"A.J. was outstanding," said McRae. "We had the right guy on the mound and we just weren't able to get the big hits."

That ended up being the difference, as Guillermo Aviles' first-inning, home run and back-to-back Cuban doubles in the fourth were the only blemishes in an otherwise terrific outing by one of the Americans' top young arms.

"It's bittersweet but it's just a blessing to be out here," said Vanegas following the devastating loss. "Our team just came short today and it happens in baseball. We gave it our all. We were down to our last strike and I'm just so proud of my teammates that they battled their hearts out."

"It's just a blessing to play the game."

With Cuba leading for most of the game, the U.S. tied it up at two in the eighth, after second baseman Yamil Rivalta was unable to corral a hard hit ball from Bubba Starling that scored Wolters.

But after steamrolling through group play and drawing a tough opening round opponent, all the U.S. can do now is think what could have been.

Lorenzen brought his top game today as he has all week, going 3-for-4 with a run batted in to bring his tournament total to 12-for-17 with eight RBI before consolation play.

"We've learned a lot on this trip and we've learned a lot about ourselves," said Lorenzen. "Nobody likes to lose, especially in a game like this. I don't think anyone fell short...they just came out on top."

GAME NOTES

Lindor went 1-for-5 today, giving him 12 hits on the tournament, which is tied for tops among the Americans with Lorenzen...Aviles' home run was his second of the tournament and the hit increased his team-leading total to nine.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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